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NEEDY, SHOCKING, WORTHY PETROLEUM: A COMPELLING INSIGHT INTO A VITAL GLOBAL RESOURCE

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  • Mr. Raman Ghosh, Senior Research Associate, CMS

NEEDY, SHOCKING, WORTHY PETROLEUM: A COMPELLING INSIGHT INTO A VITAL GLOBAL RESOURCE

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Well, Petroleum is one of the most valuable energy sources in the world,

And we all know that petroleum is important to us but…

Sometimes, the importance can be horrifying.

For over a century, the world economy has relied on oil as its lifeblood. While oil directly contributes to about 3% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it accounts for one-third of humanity's primary energy supply, which exceeds 5 terawatts out of a total of 15 terawatts. When considering natural gas, this share increases even further. Oil and gas are the sole sources of power for all transportation, which in 2022 directly contributed to one-sixth of the world's GDP and is intricately linked to all other economic activities. With the exception of a small number of electric vehicles, oil is indispensable for moving goods over distances longer than 200 km. It is also essential for running a modern military and sustaining a modern economy.

BUT WHAT IF THIS VITAL RESOURCE IS SUDDENLY DEPLETED? THAT'S WHEN I REALIZED...

It’s big. Capital B-I-G BIG. You have no idea how big oil is…

The world’s oil & gas transport infrastructure is a globe-spanning spider web of pipelines and shipping routes. The natural gas distribution pipelines in the US alone could stretch from Earth to the Moon 7-8 times. There are millions upon millions of miles of pipe on the planet to distribute crude oil, refined products, and natural gas (Mostly gas). About 40% of all seaborne cargo is oil, and there is more seaborne cargo at any given time (by weight) than there are fish in the sea. Oil is in transit for a much shorter amount of time than the lifespan of most fish, so the total amount of oil that moves via water each year is much, much higher than the total amount of fish biomass. Think about what that means for a minute. The ocean isn’t full of fish; it’s full of oil cargoes.

“But how do people confidently claim that someday it will be replaced by a cheaper source?

However, let’s consider what actually occurs...

This statement might be controversial, but it reflects reality. Oil and gas are crucial resources at present, and there are currently no viable replacements available within our lifetime. Those who believe that renewables can swiftly replace oil through a few decades of Manhattan Project-style effort are likely unaware of the immense scale of the oil industry. There is no reason whatsoever to think any feasible amount of renewable growth can displace fossil fuels in a couple of generations. Wind and solar are growing exponentially, yes, but from such a small base that it doesn’t even make a dent — the use of renewables as a percentage of total world energy consumption only increased by 7.5% from 1973 to 2023. Let me break down some numbers.

 

•    World oil production was approximately 100 million barrels per day in 2023. At roughly 6 gigajoules per barrel, that is about 600 terawatts of power production.

•    World wind power production in 2023 was approximately 1.5 petawatt-hours. Averaged over a year, that is about 117 gigawatts.

•    World solar power production in 2023 was around 2.5 petawatt-hours. Averaged over a year, that is about 285 gigawatts.

 

So, world energy production from oil alone is 5,128 times of magnitude higher than wind power, and 2,105 times of magnitude higher than solar power. Sorry guys, but regular old exponential growth isn’t even enough. To match oil, you’ll need half a century or more of clear energy superiority. That means cleaner, cheaper, and more concentrated storage. Nothing fits the bill yet. To replace oil, you’ll need a century to allow the entire economy to retool and realign around the new technology.

“BUT AFTER ALL THESE AGAIN I CAME UP WITH A QUESTION, WHAT ABOUT WEALTH!” BUT YOU KNOW WHAT? OIL IS WEALTH…

Not just wealth for producers, but wealth for everyone who uses it.

Energy efficiency is powerful and highly desirable, but it can’t compete with increasing the primary energy supply. Most of the time, increased energy efficiency results in increased energy consumption, because of cheaper costs (per unit output) and faster economic growth. Highly-developed nations can use advanced technology to increase quality of life while using less energy, but less-developed nations cannot. Achieving developed-nation status requires a significant amount of high-quality energy. Oil qualifies as high-quality energy for several reasons. Its liquid form allows for easy transportation and storage. It is stable and releases a substantial amount of energy. Additionally, compared to coal, oil is significantly cleaner. If it weren't for the issue of CO2 emissions, oil and gas would be considered nearly perfect energy sources.

The largest energy-consuming nations could significantly reduce per capita consumption. However, energy consumption per capita and per dollar of GDP are steadily declining in the developed world, which is a positive trend. Nevertheless, the amount of energy needed to uplift 1.1 billion people from poverty far exceeds the potential energy savings from eliminating waste in developed nations. This discussion is not about extravagant lifestyles, like oversized SUVs or large televisions, but rather about essential needs such as refrigeration for vaccines, irrigation for agriculture, and fuel for school buses. The planet cannot sustain 8 billion people at a low-energy agrarian level; we have surpassed the point where reverting to a low-tech, low-energy civilization would result in billions dying of starvation.

OIL REPRESENTS ENERGY, AND ENERGY EQUATES TO WEALTH.

Now it was all about us, but what happens to refineries, rigs, and their working people?" But, you know what...The oil industry is a safe place to work.

Despite the Hollywood stereotypes, oil rigs are quite safe. Working on an oil rig used to be pretty dangerous, but now the industry has made huge strides in safety improvements over the past few decades by increasing automation, providing comprehensive safety training, and changing the work culture. The world has changed significantly. Accident rates in the oil industry have steadily declined since the 1990s, to the extent that it is now safer than many conventional occupations.. The statistics prove it. “To put safety in perspective, the average 2.1 Total Recordable Incidence Rate (TRIR) for rigs operations is lower than 3.3 TRIR for real estate.

You are safer statistically on the rig floor than driving around with a real estate agent. ”Land rigs have about the same injury rate as a regular construction job, and offshore rigs have a lower injury rate than being a teacher.

Dear readers, as we reflect on the intricate role of oil in our lives and the broader global landscape, it becomes evident that this invaluable resource is deeply intertwined with our past, present, and future. Despite advancements in renewable energy sources, the sheer scale and efficiency of oil make it a cornerstone of modern civilization. While acknowledging the challenges and environmental concerns associated with its use, we must also recognize the unparalleled contributions of oil to our economy, transportation, and daily lives. As we strive for a more sustainable future, let us continue to explore innovative solutions while appreciating the indispensable role that oil plays in our world today.

 

By,

Raman Ghosh

Email: raman.ghosh@asci.org.in

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